BTE Newsletter #10: The 2026 Outlook Special
Hello everyone, and Happy New Year 🎆
I hope you all had a great holiday season. Mine was spent looking after our two kids, who were home from school for a couple of weeks. It was great to get some extra family time, but admittedly it's also great to now have the kids back in school.
With the new year now upon us, you should expect this newsletter to continue arriving every Tuesday (I'm a day late this week), although I may experiment with different formats from time to time. I did this for the Holiday Special Issue, and am doing so again this week for the 2026 Outlook. Any feedback is welcome.
You should also expect frequent new episodes of the Beyond The Exchange podcast. The first two episodes of 2026 are scheduled to be recorded this week and next, so they should both be out before the end of the month. I'm always on the lookout for great guests, so if you have a compelling message for this community (or know someone who does), please reach out. In the meantime, you can subscribe here if you haven't already:
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Ben
2026 Outlook: 5 Key Questions for the Year
The outlook identifies a key theme for each area of private markets (equity, credit, real estate and infrastructure) as well as a key theme for public markets. If you're reading this as an email subscriber, you can download the pdf at the bottom. If you're reading this online and haven't subscribed, you can subscribe then scroll to the bottom of this page to download the file.
The 5 questions (and introductory snippets) are as follows:
Private Equity: Is the Hangover Coming to an End?
Over the past three years, private equity has been dogged by slow monetization activity, weak fundraising, and performance that has trailed public equities. Now as deal activity shows early signs of life, is there light at the end of the tunnel?
Private Credit: Will the Naysayers Ever Be Proven Right?
Skeptics argue that the surge of capital into private credit is eroding underwriting standards and setting the stage for future credit losses. Yet so far, returns have continued to outpace public credit and realized losses have remained subdued.
Private Real Estate: Are We In the Beginning of a Recovery?
Real estate values have languished in recent years as higher rates and broader societal shifts have weighed on pricing. More recently, valuations appear to have found a floor and the conditions for a recovery are in place.
Private Infrastructure: How Will the AI Buildout Evolve?
Private infrastructure funds have emerged as a natural match for the massive capital needs of data centres and power generation assets that underpin AI. How this plays out will likely be the key theme of private infrastructure for many years to come.
Public Equities & Fixed Income: How Long Will the Party Last?
Public markets have delivered a remarkable run in recent years, powered in large part by the AI boom and the outsized gains of the Magnificent 7. The question now is whether all the optimism is warranted.
